What Happened to Affordable Homes?

If you’ve been paying attention to home prices in greater Cincinnati over the past few years, you’ve probably noticed a trend: homes that were selling for around $150,000 in 2018 are now selling for well over $200,000. In fact, in many areas it is nearly impossible to find a move-in ready home for under $200,000. So, what happened?

The short answer is that we have been dealing with a shortage of homes for sale since 2012 or so. Remember that mortgage crisis circa 2008 - 2011? Many builders didn’t survive the sudden influx of foreclosed homes for sale, and others became much more conservative about building on spec (i.e. without a ready buyer) and financing terms.

As you can see in the chart above, newly completed single family homes haven’t even returned to half of the levels we were seeing in 2005. Think about it this way: over the past 18 years of population growth, not to mention the normal major life events that usually result in a move, builders in the Midwest have not built even half of the number of homes they had built prior to that. Could this have just been a market correction, though? Were builders in 2005 building way too many homes?

Nope. Over the same 20 year period, new household formation in the USA shows an obvious and steady increase (I’m very curious to know what that spike in 2020 was…maybe in a later post!). So, we saw an increase in demand for housing that was not compatible with supply levels that were not growing at the same rate. This led to increasing home prices in many markets, which was great for existing homeowners, many of whom had built more equity than they expected and continue to do so. For first time buyers the situation was a little more complex, but that’s a whole other post.

At the same time, many older homeowners were facing tough decisions about their long-term housing needs in the face of a struggling stock market and increasing long-term care costs. Some chose to age in place, so they opted to improve or adapt their homes to their changing needs. First floor bedroom suite additions, elevators, in-home caregivers, and inviting extended family to move in were all strategies for retirees who felt they had no great options. More recently, we’ve seen them reconsider moving because they don’t want to give up their attractive mortgage interest rates (assuming they refinanced within the past 4-5 years). This has further affected the number of homes available for sale.

The moral of the story is this: don’t wait for home prices to go down if you need to move. There is no reason for prices to drop until our supply issue is resolved, and that will take years (construction takes time, and good quality construction takes even more time). Interest rates will probably decrease over time, but I also wouldn’t recommend waiting around for those sub-3% rates we were seeing during the height of the pandemic. Focus on your needs today instead: if you need to buy, sell, or both, work with a professional to determine what your options are.