What Happened to Affordable Homes?

If you’ve been paying attention to home prices in greater Cincinnati over the past few years, you’ve probably noticed a trend: homes that were selling for around $150,000 in 2018 are now selling for well over $200,000. In fact, in many areas it is nearly impossible to find a move-in ready home for under $200,000. So, what happened?

The short answer is that we have been dealing with a shortage of homes for sale since 2012 or so. Remember that mortgage crisis circa 2008 - 2011? Many builders didn’t survive the sudden influx of foreclosed homes for sale, and others became much more conservative about building on spec (i.e. without a ready buyer) and financing terms.

As you can see in the chart above, newly completed single family homes haven’t even returned to half of the levels we were seeing in 2005. Think about it this way: over the past 18 years of population growth, not to mention the normal major life events that usually result in a move, builders in the Midwest have not built even half of the number of homes they had built prior to that. Could this have just been a market correction, though? Were builders in 2005 building way too many homes?

Nope. Over the same 20 year period, new household formation in the USA shows an obvious and steady increase (I’m very curious to know what that spike in 2020 was…maybe in a later post!). So, we saw an increase in demand for housing that was not compatible with supply levels that were not growing at the same rate. This led to increasing home prices in many markets, which was great for existing homeowners, many of whom had built more equity than they expected and continue to do so. For first time buyers the situation was a little more complex, but that’s a whole other post.

At the same time, many older homeowners were facing tough decisions about their long-term housing needs in the face of a struggling stock market and increasing long-term care costs. Some chose to age in place, so they opted to improve or adapt their homes to their changing needs. First floor bedroom suite additions, elevators, in-home caregivers, and inviting extended family to move in were all strategies for retirees who felt they had no great options. More recently, we’ve seen them reconsider moving because they don’t want to give up their attractive mortgage interest rates (assuming they refinanced within the past 4-5 years). This has further affected the number of homes available for sale.

The moral of the story is this: don’t wait for home prices to go down if you need to move. There is no reason for prices to drop until our supply issue is resolved, and that will take years (construction takes time, and good quality construction takes even more time). Interest rates will probably decrease over time, but I also wouldn’t recommend waiting around for those sub-3% rates we were seeing during the height of the pandemic. Focus on your needs today instead: if you need to buy, sell, or both, work with a professional to determine what your options are.

What Is TRID, And Why Should I Care?

Betterloanofficers.com

Have you bought or sold a home in the last forty years? Aside from interest rates and loan products, not much has changed in the home-buying process during that time. But some important changes are on their way, thanks to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). They're called the Truth in Lending Act (TILA) - Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) Integrated Disclosure, or TRID for short...because there weren't enough acronyms already.

To download a handy booklet that covers everything a consumer would need to know about TRID, head over to the CFPB website and look for the "Your Home Loan Toolkit" PDF brochure. I'll go over the highlights for you:

• Today, many real estate contracts request a closing date 30 days out. When TRID goes into effect on October 3rd, lenders and title companies are recommending that you allow an extra week or two on the contract to ensure compliance with new government mandated waiting periods that are designed to allow consumers adequate time to review loan information prior to closing.
• As a buyer, you'll probably be asked by your lender to sign documents electronically since that will be the most practical way to comply with the new laws.
• The preapproval process remains unchanged, for the most part. Although lenders are now prohibited from requiring income information to provide a Loan Estimate (LE), a smart buyer should know that the most solid loan preapproval will be based on that income information. So make sure you're being open with your loan officer!
• Sometimes under the current laws, the loan is processed well before the closing date, and you get to close early! That's going to be pretty unlikely under the new rules, because the closing date determines some of the information on the Closing Disclosure (CD) and the lender needs to provide the CD to the borrower no later than 3 days prior to closing (including Saturdays for some lenders, excluding Sundays and federal holidays for all lenders).

While there is a lot more to say about TRID, very little of it will be seen by the average consumer. My advice is to make sure you're ready to act quickly once you've chosen a home: provide all the details to your loan officer, get an estimate on homeowner's insurance, and make sure your Realtor is communicating with the lender and the title company on a regular basis.

Let a Multifamily Property Pay Your Mortgage

Wikipedia

Rents are rising, and if you pay any attention at all to the news, you'll hear that renters are starting to look more actively for homes to purchase. I was lucky enough to sell my home in California to a woman weary of exorbitant rents in San Francisco back in 2013...and the Midwest (including Cincinnati) is starting to see the same trend. For some, the idea of owning a home rather than paying someone else's mortgage is their version of the American dream. For others, though, the responsibilities and maintenance costs associated with owning a single family home are downright frightening.

Pro tip: You can use the same type of mortgage financing -- even FHA! -- to purchase a 2-4 unit building in Ohio as you would to buy a single family home.

By living in one unit and renting out the others, you'll have a ready-made income stream to help you pay your mortgage and make periodic improvements to the property. You'll be able to balance the peace of mind that comes from knowing who's responsible for fixing things with the security of tenants paying their own utilities (this may vary by building) and ultimately contributing to your bottom line. Renters will likely prefer living in the same building as the owner, because they know you will be even more invested in making sure the place is livable. This would also be a great solution if you're self-employed, or if you want to stay home with the kid(s). And best of all, when you're ready for a single family home of your very own, you'll still have this awesome income property!

The downside? Obviously, you won't have as much privacy in a multifamily as you would in a single family home. You'll also need to learn all the ins and outs of being a landlord, such as tenants' rights, housing discrimination laws, calculating and tracking your rental income, rental deposit limits and record keeping, and so on. And you'll still be responsible for any major repairs just as you would be with a single family home.

Choosing the right multifamily will depend on your particular needs and skill set. If you're going to live there, it will need to be in a neighborhood you like and would enjoy living in; the more popular the better if you want to attract a constant stream of tenants! If you're not too handy and the thought of following YouTube video tutorials makes you squirm, try looking for a building that has been recently updated and has no significant inspection issues -- it may cost more up front, but it will give you time to either develop handyman skills or find a good one to keep on call. Other good things to consider during your search would be parking, public transportation access, and available storage. 

Do you have a story about owning and occupying a multifamily? Tell me in the comments!

Is it time to refinance?

Picture this: you'd like to sell your home and move to a new one, but you haven't built up enough equity in your home for that to make financial sense. This is the case for many homeowners who may at one point have been underwater, but have watched home values slowly rise (or not so slowly, depending on what part of the country you're in).

There may be a solution -- not an instant fix, but nonetheless a smart step on that path to owning the new home you have in mind. Mortgage rates are still nice and low and qualifying should be easier than anytime in the past several years. However, rates are expected to rise this year which would once again make refinancing impractical for millions of homeowners. 

Refinancing helps you, when it's done intelligently, by helping you capture more of the equity in your home and locking in a lower monthly payment. For example, I purchased a home in 2009 with an FHA loan and refinanced in 2011 when I saw property values rising dramatically -- meaning that I already had more equity in my home just due to market activity. And since I was pretty sure I was moving within the next 3 years (I was right), I chose a 5/1 ARM at 2% interest, which cut my payment dramatically. I did have to pay closing costs out of pocket, which I was able to do, but I no longer had to pay mortgage insurance. Plus, I was able to pay bi-weekly which meant an extra payment a year...so when I sold my home in 2013 I was able to walk away with a good amount of cash.

For more information on refinancing, check out this article from TheTruthAboutMortgage.com or talk to your favorite lender -- and if you're looking for a lender in the Cincinnati area, check out my Helpful Information page for some referrals!