The Best Time to Buy and Sell a Home

Have you ever heard that Spring is the best time to sell a home? While there are certainly seasonal patterns in the greater Cincinnati real estate market just like most places, the main thing to consider is what the situation is when you are ready to sell or buy. Timing does matter, but having a good strategy for the season you’re in matters more!

March to May: More Inventory, More Competition

Line graph showing number of new listings by month in Hamilton County, OH between January 2021 and January 2026

Due in part to school calendars, better weather, and corporate relocations, Spring is still the most popular time of year to see new homes come up for sale. You’ll see this pattern most dramatically in high demand school districts, because many families find it easier to make a move when their children are out of school for the summer. For sellers, this can mean that you are competing against more listings, so it can be tough to stand out; you’ll want a solid agent advising you on pricing, presentation, and negotiations to make sure you achieve your goals.

Buyers know this pattern if they’ve been watching the market for a little while, and they know it will mean more options to choose from, but also multiple offer situations due to the large number of competing buyers this time of year. Without strong financing and expert negotiation, it can be tough to win and many Spring shoppers find themselves having to write a few offers before they get under contract. Buyers who need concessions from sellers often have trouble competing in the Spring, but if they’re willing to take on a home that might need some updating or has other issues that their competitors turn down, deals can still be made!

June to August: Still Active, More Pressure

As schools start to close for the summer, there are usually still plenty of homes on the market, but this starts to change over the summer. Many buyers start to feel that they’re under more pressure to find the right home before school starts up again, and sellers start to worry that they’ll run out of time as well while watching other homes go pending. Plus, many families choose summer for their family vacations, so between being out of town and coordinating summer sports activities, it can be more challenging to get to the right house at the right time.

On the upside, most homes show their best in the summer! Sellers should focus more than ever on their curb appeal and landscaping during this time. Buyers normally see a little less competition by this point in the year, and they often have a little more time to make a decision. This can mean more contracts staying together than during busier times.

September to November: More Opportunities

Autumn traditionally brings fewer new listings to the market, and homes tend to stay on the market longer which usually results in more price reductions than other seasons. Sellers during this time are usually more motivated, and since some Buyers have decided to hold off until the next year by this point, Buyers should see less competition overall. This particularly benefits move-up Buyers who need to sell their current home in order to buy the next one, property investors who can more easily pick out the homes that aren’t appealing in their current state to the rest of the buyer pool, and first time buyers who might not have been as attractive to sellers earlier in the year.

December to February: Less Volume, More Intent

If there’s one rule about winter, it’s that anyone who’s buying or selling during this time is likely to be very motivated. There’s less daylight to see homes, colder temperatures, and lots of holiday activities to juggle on the calendar. Most homes don’t look as pretty without leaves on the trees, and snow is only charming to a point. Sellers can expect serious buyers during the winter who really want or need to move, perhaps due to hating their rental, job relocation, or other life events. Buyers won’t have as much competition in the marketplace, but they’ll also have less to choose from so it’s not the ideal season to be picky.

Winter is a great time to reach out to your agent, though, if you are considering making a move in the next 12 months. Sellers will have more time to get an idea of their home’s current and projected resale value, professional input on what improvements might be worth the money, and which season might be best for their particular neighborhood and situation. Buyers can start casually viewing homes for sale, and first timers especially can use this time as a learning period to see what types of homes they might like, what some common areas of concern might be, and which homes sell faster than others — while at the same time continuing to save for their down payment, or improving their credit to put themselves in a better position when they find the right home.

Should You Time the Market?

You can see in the charts above that these trends seem to be true throughout greater Cincinnati (each one pulled data from a different county), but keep in mind that this can vary on a micro level: urban, suburban, and rural markets all function a little differently, which is why it’s so important to review your specific situation with a great agent. Your price range, school district, and percentage of investors to owner-occupants can also affect market activity and timing, not to mention national factors such as mortgage rates and economic or political uncertainty.

My personal feeling is that the best time to sell your home is when you’re ready to sell: when you’ve made all the improvements you are willing and able to make, when you’re financially and emotionally ready for the change, and when you have a solid plan. The same concept applies to buyers! If you are financially prepared to buy a home, and homes in that price range align with your goals, it’s time to start looking.

“Ninety percent of all millionaires become so through owning real estate. More money has been made in real estate than in all industrial investments combined. The wise young man or wage earner of today invests his money in real estate.” - Andrew Carnegie

What Happened to Affordable Homes?

If you’ve been paying attention to home prices in greater Cincinnati over the past few years, you’ve probably noticed a trend: homes that were selling for around $150,000 in 2018 are now selling for well over $200,000. In fact, in many areas it is nearly impossible to find a move-in ready home for under $200,000. So, what happened?

The short answer is that we have been dealing with a shortage of homes for sale since 2012 or so. Remember that mortgage crisis circa 2008 - 2011? Many builders didn’t survive the sudden influx of foreclosed homes for sale, and others became much more conservative about building on spec (i.e. without a ready buyer) and financing terms.

As you can see in the chart above, newly completed single family homes haven’t even returned to half of the levels we were seeing in 2005. Think about it this way: over the past 18 years of population growth, not to mention the normal major life events that usually result in a move, builders in the Midwest have not built even half of the number of homes they had built prior to that. Could this have just been a market correction, though? Were builders in 2005 building way too many homes?

Nope. Over the same 20 year period, new household formation in the USA shows an obvious and steady increase (I’m very curious to know what that spike in 2020 was…maybe in a later post!). So, we saw an increase in demand for housing that was not compatible with supply levels that were not growing at the same rate. This led to increasing home prices in many markets, which was great for existing homeowners, many of whom had built more equity than they expected and continue to do so. For first time buyers the situation was a little more complex, but that’s a whole other post.

At the same time, many older homeowners were facing tough decisions about their long-term housing needs in the face of a struggling stock market and increasing long-term care costs. Some chose to age in place, so they opted to improve or adapt their homes to their changing needs. First floor bedroom suite additions, elevators, in-home caregivers, and inviting extended family to move in were all strategies for retirees who felt they had no great options. More recently, we’ve seen them reconsider moving because they don’t want to give up their attractive mortgage interest rates (assuming they refinanced within the past 4-5 years). This has further affected the number of homes available for sale.

The moral of the story is this: don’t wait for home prices to go down if you need to move. There is no reason for prices to drop until our supply issue is resolved, and that will take years (construction takes time, and good quality construction takes even more time). Interest rates will probably decrease over time, but I also wouldn’t recommend waiting around for those sub-3% rates we were seeing during the height of the pandemic. Focus on your needs today instead: if you need to buy, sell, or both, work with a professional to determine what your options are.

Improved Market Activity In February

One of several infographics from the February 2015 survey report

The latest REALTORS(c) Confidence Index survey has been released to those who responded to the survey -- like me -- and it has some good news for those looking to buy or sell this year. For those of you unfamiliar with the survey, it is sent by the National Association of REALTORS each month to 50,000 randomly chosen members, as well as to respondents in the previous three surveys who provided an email address.

So, what's the news? February showed increased market activity across the nation, supported by easier mortgage access and the recent decrease in FHA mortgage insurance premiums. Also, REALTORS in every state were very positive about the outlook for single family homes in the next six months. Buyer traffic did continue to outpace seller traffic in February, so it's not just me wondering where all the homes are for my buyers (great time to list, everyone!). Showings were down overall in February, but since this has been the trend for the past two years and it was a snowy winter month for many of us I'm not terribly surprised. REALTORS expect that prices will increase modestly over the next year -- not another bubble, just a gradual increase partly due to high buyer demand and lower inventory. Homes are taking about a week less to sell than reported in January but about the same amount of time as February 2014; over a third of homes sold within 30 days.

There's plenty more information in this report, but those are the highlights. You'll be able to see it for yourself at the NAR website later this week.

Home Office Space Could Make The Sale

A consumer research firm recently learned that over 75% of people would use extra bedroom space as an office in their next home, beating out guest rooms and multipurpose rooms. This shouldn't be that surprising, especially with the increase in telecommuting and self-employment opportunities, and the recent increase of stay-at-home moms. Plus, parents see a centralized work space where they can keep an eye on homework progress as an increasingly important feature.

Remember, if you do work from home you may be able to deduct the cost of your home office on your taxes as well -- the only room in the home that can pay you back before you sell!